USD/CAD was trading near 1.4212 as of 13:28 UTC (21:28 GMT+8) on 1 July 2026. Canadian markets are closed for Canada Day, but the CUSMA trade deal review is live and the US session has JOLTS and ISM data due. The pair has been trading near the middle of its recent 1.4080 to 1.4250 range for most of the past week, with the 50-period and 200-period MAs sitting just below the current price.

Charts are indicative and from TradingView. This is not financial advice.

Key points

• USD/CAD remained near 1.4212 as of 13:28 UTC on 1 July 2026 (21:28 GMT+8), trading within the week’s 1.4080 to 1.4250 range. The 50-period MA sat at 1.42103 and the 200-period MA at 1.42065 on the 15-minute chart.
• The CUSMA six-year review began today. Canada and Mexico are pushing for a 16-year extension to 2042; the US has not committed to automatic renewal, contributing to uncertainty surrounding the Canadian dollar.
• The Bank of Canada’s overnight rate sits at 2.25%, roughly 125 to 150 basis points below the Federal Reserve’s 3.50% to 3.75% target range. That rate gap has been a persistent headwind for the Canadian dollar.

What the USDCAD chart is showing

On the 15-minute USDCAD chart, both moving averages are clustered tightly around the current price. The 50-period MA (lighter line) printed at 1.42103 and the 200-period MA (darker line) at 1.42065 as of the cut-off time. The narrow gap between the two reflects the compressed, sideways movement that has defined the pair over the past week.

The RSI (14, close) on the TradingView setup used for this analysis shows the RSI line (purple) at 46.66 and its moving-average overlay (yellow) at 59.27. The RSI sitting below its overlay and below the 50 midpoint points to fading short-term momentum. Notably, the pair is still trading above both moving averages, which suggests the momentum is cooling rather than reversing. The pair is not yet in oversold territory.

The pair reached a short-term high near 1.4248 on 25 June 2026 before pulling back toward 1.4155 on 30 June 2026. Volume on the Vantage CFD feed printed at 590 on the most recent bar, reflecting the thin Canada Day session.^[1] See all latest USDCAD news here.

Figure 1: USDCAD 15-minute chart as of 13:28 UTC, 1 July 2026. MAs and RSI from the TradingView setup used for this analysis. (TradingView, https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/FX-USDCAD/) Accessed on 1 July 2026. Data indicative, for informational purposes only.

Three things driving USD to CAD today

CUSMA review: uncertainty, not expiry

Today marks the first mandatory joint review of CUSMA under Article 34.7. All three parties can agree to a 16-year extension to 2042 or fall into annual reviews until 2036. Canada formally asked for renewal in June. The US has not committed.

Prime Minister Mark Carney described the meeting as a ‘constructive exchange’ with no drama expected.^[2] The Bank of Canada’s April 2026 Monetary Policy Report noted that prolonged annual-review uncertainty would act as an invisible drag on Canadian investment, contributing to uncertainty surrounding the Canadian dollar even if no deal collapses outright.^[3]

BoC rate pause and the 125-150bp rate gap

The Bank of Canada held at 2.25% in April 2026 while the Fed holds at 3.50% to 3.75%. Canada’s May CPI surprised at 3.2% year-on-year but core measures stayed near 2.1%, giving the BoC little reason to tighten. The wider policy-rate differential continues to favour US-dollar assets, supporting USD/CAD, and TD Economics’ latest quarterly forecast expects this dynamic to persist through year-end, has the potential to restrain the Canadian dollar if current policy differentials persist.^[4]

Oil and the commodity link

WTI (USOUSD) traded near USD 71.11 at the prior session close on 30 June.^[5] National Bank of Canada argues in its June 2026 Economics and Strategy note that gold has recently become a more influential marginal driver of CAD than oil, citing gold’s decline of more than 17% from its recent record high as a headwind for the loonie. Softer oil prices have reduced one traditional source of support for the Canadian dollar, although interest-rate differentials and broader US dollar sentiment remain the dominant drivers of USD/CAD. A continued ceasefire in the Middle East has kept oil off its March peaks.^[6]

Key USD/CAD levels to watch

Table 1: Key levels as of 13:28 UTC, 1 July 2026. Sources: TradingView, Investing.com, Vantage CFD feed. Indicative only.

Convera’s 1 July FX note flagged near-term USDCAD bias as range-bound in the 1.4080 to 1.4280 band, with the pair looking supported by the US relative-rate advantage pending Thursday’s US NFP print. Consensus for the 3 July 2026 payrolls report points to approximately 115,000 jobs added, with the unemployment rate holding at 4.3%.^[7]

What to watch

• CUSMA review statement, 1 July 2026 (today): Any joint communique from the trilateral meeting. An extension signal reduces uncertainty surrounding the Canadian dollar; no progress keeps that uncertainty in place.
• US JOLTS, ADP Employment and ISM Manufacturing, 1 July 2026: First labour-market reads of the week. A strong print reinforces the higher-for-longer Fed view and may add pressure on USD/CAD through elevated US yields.
• US NFP, 3 July 2026: Consensus calls for around 115,000 jobs added and an unchanged 4.3% unemployment rate. The payrolls outcome is the week’s main event for USDCAD.^[7]
• Bank of Canada MPR, 15 July 2026: Any change in the BoC’s language on rates or the CUSMA outlook could move the pair sharply around that date.^[3]

On Stop Loss placement: market participants often monitor the 1.4150 area as a short-term floor and the 1.4250 to 1.4300 zone as the recent resistance band. With the CUSMA review live and US payroll data due 3 July, intraday moves on headlines are possible. Reviewing combined exposure across correlated CAD positions is worth considering ahead of these events.

Leverage works in both directions in a pair reacting to trade and macro headlines. Position sizing relative to account equity is worth revisiting ahead of JOLTS today and NFP on 3 July. CFD trading with leverage amplifies both potential returns and potential losses on the Vantage USDCAD CFD.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “USDCAD Chart – TradingView” https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/FX-USDCAD/ Accessed on 1 July 2026.

[2] “What July 1 means for CUSMA, Canada’s trade deal with the U.S. and Mexico – CBC News” https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cusma-usmca-july-1-canada-us-mexico-trade-trump-tariffs-9.7253789 Accessed on 1 July 2026.

[3] “The review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement – Bank of Canada” https://www.bankofcanada.ca/publications/mpr/mpr-2026-01-28/in-focus-2/ Accessed on 1 July 2026.

[4] “Canadian Quarterly Economic Forecast – TD Economics” https://economics.td.com/ca-quarterly-economic-forecast Accessed on 1 July 2026.

[5] “Canadian Dollar weighed down – Baystreet.ca” https://www.baystreet.ca/articles/forex_trader.aspx Accessed on 1 July 2026.

[6] “Economics and Strategy June 2026 – National Bank of Canada Financial Markets” https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/mensuel/forex.pdf Accessed on 1 July 2026.

[7] “USMCA (CUSMA) deal review on the spotlight – Convera FX Research” https://convera.com/blog/market-insights/fx-research/daily-market-updates/usmca-cusma-deal-review-on-the-spotlight/ Accessed on 1 July 2026.