All prices refer to the Vantage EURUSD CFD. Chart data from TradingView as of 02:02 UTC on 2 July 2026 (10:02 GMT+8). Not financial advice.

EUR/USD is hovering near 1.13816 as of 02:02 UTC on 2 July 2026  –  right at its 200-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. The euro to usd rate slipped on 1 July after US private payrolls for June came in at 98,000, missing the Dow Jones consensus of 110,000.^[1] Now the pair is pinned ahead of the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report at 12:30 UTC, the single biggest dollar catalyst of the week. Check out all latest EURUSD news here.

This EURUSD news update covers what the chart, ADP data, and Sintra signals mean for the pair today.

Key Points

• EUR/USD (Euro to USD) is near 1.13816 on the Vantage EURUSD CFD as of 02:02 UTC on 2 July 2026, sitting at the 15-minute MA200 with the MA50 at 1.13987 overhead.
• June ADP private payrolls printed 98,000, missing the 110,000 consensus and falling from May’s 122,000, a soft lead-in to today’s NFP report.^[1]
• The RSI (14), per the TradingView setup used for this analysis, reads 58.98; the RSI moving-average overlay sits at 48.87, suggesting stabilisation after the 1 July sell-off but no directional conviction.

EURUSD Chart: MA200 as the Hinge Point

The 15-minute EURUSD chart shows the pair trading between 1.1430 and 1.1440 on 29-30 June before sellers took control. The decisive move came on 1 July around 12:00-13:00 UTC: a sharp volume spike drove price into the 1.1375-1.1385 zone in a matter of candles.

The MA50&200 header on the TradingView setup used for this analysis reads: MA50 = 1.13987, MA200 = 1.13816. Price is at the MA200, which is acting as a near-term pivot rather than offering clear directional support. The MA50, roughly 17 pips above, is the first meaningful cap before the recent swing-high resistance around 1.1435-1.1440 visible on the chart.

The RSI (14) per the TradingView setup used for this analysis is at 58.98 with the RSI moving-average overlay at 48.87, the RSI crossed back above its own overlay after the 1 July low, consistent with the partial bounce, but the pair has not reclaimed the MA50.

EUR/USD News: Sintra, ADP, and Tariff Pressure

Three events shaped the EUR/USD rate heading into Thursday.

ECB Sintra Forum (29 June – 1 July 2026)

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh made his international debut at the ECB’s annual forum in Sintra, Portugal, appearing alongside ECB President Christine Lagarde, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem.^[2] Warsh reaffirmed an unambiguous commitment to the Fed’s 2% inflation goal, declining to submit a dot-plot projection and announcing five task forces to review Fed communications.^[3] The tone left little room for a dovish interpretation of US policy.

ADP June payrolls miss

US private employers added 98,000 jobs in June 2026 against a Dow Jones consensus of 110,000, down from May’s 122,000.^[1] The miss was not large enough to shift rate expectations materially on its own, but it injected caution ahead of today’s NFP print. Financial activities and information led gains, while leisure and hospitality recorded a sixth straight month of weak hiring.

EU tariff risk

Reports that the US is pushing for a 15-20% minimum tariff on all EU goods weighed on the euro on 1 July 2026.^[4] That trade friction, combined with below-forecast June inflation data from Germany and France,^[5] reinforces the view that the ECB’s June rate hike to 2.25% may be a pause point rather than the start of a cycle.

EUR/USD Levels to Watch

Reference levels traders are monitoring on the Vantage EURUSD CFD. Not trade signals.

Table 1: EURUSD reference levels as of 02:02 UTC, 2 July 2026. Sources: Vantage EURUSD CFD; TradingView. Indicative only.

What to Watch

• NFP, 2 July 2026, 12:30 UTC: The primary EUR/USD forecast driver today. May NFP printed 172,000 against an 80,000 consensus. A significant beat reinforces September Fed hike pricing and firms the dollar. A miss eases that pressure on the eur usd forecast.
• ECB decision, 23 July 2026: Markets are reassessing whether the ECB follows the June hike or holds, given softer Eurozone inflation. Lagarde’s data-dependent framing at Sintra left the door open either way.
• Fed meeting, 29 July 2026: Nine policymakers projected at least one additional hike in 2026 per the June dot plot. Warsh’s communication style, as seen at Sintra, will continue to be read for rate signals.

Risk Management

Market participants often monitor the 1.1375-1.1385 zone as the area that absorbed the 1 July sell-off. With NFP due at 12:30 UTC, intraday ranges are likely to widen. Traders may wish to review Stop Loss placement relative to those levels before the release.

Leverage amplifies both returns and losses on EUR/USD CFD positions. On a major data day, spreads can widen and price can gap. Reviewing position sizing relative to account equity before 12:30 UTC is worth considering. Leverage works both ways.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and does not take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “ADP June 2026 private payrolls miss expectations at 98,000 – Yahoo Finance” https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/adp-june-2026-private-payrolls-122828638.html Accessed on 2 July 2026.

[2] “ECB Forum on Central Banking 2026 programme – European Central Bank” https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/conferences/html/20260629_ecb_forum_on_central_banking.en.html Accessed on 2 July 2026.

[3] “Federal Reserve Chair Warsh speaking at ECB Forum – investingLive” https://investinglive.com/centralbank/federal-reserve-chair-warsh-is-speaking-on-wednesday-20260701/ Accessed on 2 July 2026.

[4] “FT: Trump pushing for 15-20% minimum tariff on EU goods – investingLive” https://investinglive.com/news/investinglive-european-markets-wrap-oil-keeps-lower-tech-shares-retreat-on-july-turn-20260701/ Accessed on 2 July 2026.

[5] “Euro area annual inflation down to 2.8% in June 2026 (flash estimate) – Eurostat” https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-euro-indicators/w/2-01072026-ap Accessed on 2 July 2026.

[6] “Kevin Warsh makes global debut at ECB forum – Crypto Briefing” https://cryptobriefing.com/kevin-warsh-ecb-forum-global-debut/ Accessed on 2 July 2026.

[7] “EURUSD 1.1390: ECB Hiked to 2.25%, Euro Still Fell. NFP 2 July – Vantage Markets” https://www.vantagemarketsea.com/market-analysis/eurusd-analysis-june-29-2026/ Accessed on 2 July 2026.