The Vantage USDCAD CFD was at 1.3918 at 07:30 UTC on 4 June 2026, near a two-month high.

Canada lost 18,000 jobs in April and unemployment is at 6.9%, a six-month high.^[1][2] GDP contracted 0.6% in Q4 2025.^[8] The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% in April and has no clean path to cut or hike from here, with energy-driven inflation pulling against a softening economy.^[4]

Two releases now decide where the Loonie goes next: Canada’s May Labour Force Survey on 5 June and the BoC decision on 10 June. All prices are from the Vantage USDCAD CFD feed as of 07:30 UTC (15:30 GMT+8), 4 June 2026. Charts are from TradingView and are indicative only. This is not financial advice.

Key Points

• The Vantage USDCAD CFD reached 1.3918 by 07:30 UTC on 4 June 2026, recovering from an overnight low near 1.3882. The Loonie stayed soft on a weak labour market and a BoC with nowhere to move.
• Canada shed 18,000 jobs in April and unemployment hit 6.9%, a six-month high.^[1][2] Interest rate swap markets are pricing a hold at the 10 June meeting as the near-certain outcome.^[6]
• The May jobs report drops on 5 June 2026. A second consecutive miss would be the last major data point before the BoC decision, and the Canadian dollar has been under pressure all week.^[3]

What the chart shows

On the Vantage USDCAD CFD 1-minute chart, the pair dipped to 1.3882 in early Asian hours on 3 June, then ground higher through the rest of the session. From around 04:30 UTC on 4 June, the move accelerated, price cleared 1.3900 and reached 1.3918 by 07:30 UTC.

Volume on the Vantage CFD feed picked up through the 05:00 to 07:30 UTC window, the same period where price was held cleanly above 1.3900. The pair remained above 1.3900 during the latter part of the session.

The pair tested 1.3920 to 1.3930 twice without a clean break as of 07:30 UTC. On the downside, 1.3850 is where the 3 June dip found support, and where traders have been anchoring their downside reference.

The BoC’s problem: soft economy, sticky inflation

The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% in April and emphasized that future policy decisions remain data dependent. The statement noted the Governing Council is watching how trade and energy conditions develop, and that it stands ready to respond as the outlook evolves — without signaling a clear direction.^[4]

The numbers back up the uncertainty. GDP contracted 0.6% in Q4 2025.^[8] April employment fell 17,700, analysts had penciled in a 15,000 gain, and the unemployment rate jumped to 6.9%.^[1][2] TD Economics noted hiring is ‘struggling to absorb labour supply,’ which limits how much firms can push cost increases onto consumers.^[5]

At the same time, energy costs from the Middle East conflict pushed headline CPI higher. The BoC’s April Monetary Policy Report projected CPI inflation rising further to around 3% in April, before easing back toward the 2% target in 2027 as oil prices moderate.^[4] Weak growth plus rising prices, neither a cut nor a hike is an obvious call from here.

Interest rate swap markets are pricing a hold on 10 June as the near-certain outcome, according to Bloomberg data cited by the Globe and Mail.^[6] The rate gap between the US Fed (3.50%-3.75%) and the BoC (2.25%) has sat at roughly 1.25 to 1.50 percentage points in the dollar’s favour through May, that spread alone has kept the pair elevated.

What to watch

Two events this week, then a third next:

• Canada Labour Force Survey, 5 June 2026: RBC Economics expects roughly 25,000 new jobs and unemployment dipping to 6.8%, partly from census hiring. If full-time employment falls again — as it did in April — the Loonie faces another leg of pressure heading into the BoC.^[3]
• BoC rate decision, 10 June 2026: A hold at 2.25% is the near-certain outcome. The statement language will matter more — any shift toward tighter guidance, however unlikely, would move USDCAD sharply.^[6]
• WTI Crude, Ongoing: Oil is Canada’s biggest export driver. A slide below USD 85 removes a key support for CAD. A spike from Middle East tensions could provide some offset, but the pair this week follows jobs and the BoC first.^[7]

The table below shows reference levels traders have been using. These are not trade signals.

Table 1: Key reference levels as of 07:30 UTC, 4 June 2026. Sources: Vantage USDCAD CFD, TradingView. Indicative only.

Risk management

USDCAD has two catalysts firing in six days. Intraday ranges around data releases tend to widen fast on this pair — the overnight move from 1.3882 to 1.3919 in a few hours shows how much ground it can cover. Stop Loss placement around the 1.3850 support and the 1.3920-1.3950 resistance zone is worth checking before the 5 June release.

If you’re holding USDCAD alongside crude proxies or other CAD crosses, check your combined exposure now. A strong jobs print could push several of those positions simultaneously. Position sizing matters more before a jobs-plus-central-bank week than on a quiet session.

Leverage cuts both ways. USDCAD moved 37 pips overnight without a scheduled release — with two high-impact events queued up, that range could be larger. Size accordingly. Start trading now!

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “Labour Force Survey, April 2026 — Statistics Canada” https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/260508/dq260508a-eng.htm Accessed on 4 June 2026.

[2] “Canada Unemployment Rate — Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/unemployment-rate Accessed on 4 June 2026.

[3] “Expect Canada’s unemployment rate to tick lower in May — RBC Economics” https://www.rbc.com/en/economics/forward-guidance/forward-guidance-our-weekly-preview/ Accessed on 4 June 2026.

[4] “Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2.25% — Bank of Canada” https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/04/fad-press-release-2026-04-29/ Accessed on 4 June 2026.

[5] “Canadian Employment, April 2026 — TD Economics” https://economics.td.com/ca-employment Accessed on 4 June 2026.

[6] “Bank of Canada rate decisions — The Globe and Mail (Bloomberg swap data)” https://www.theglobeandmail.com/topics/bank-of-canada/ Accessed on 4 June 2026.

[7] “Canadian Dollar — Trading Economics” https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/currency Accessed on 4 June 2026.

[8] “Canada’s Q4 GDP contracts on annualized basis — BNN Bloomberg (Statistics Canada)” https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/economics/2026/02/27/canadas-q4-gdp-contracts-on-annualized-basis-full-year-growth-at-17/ Accessed on 4 June 2026.