[DAILY TRADING] AUDUSD Analysis 15 July 2026 – AUDUSD Forecast: Aussie Tests 0.7000 Ahead of RBA, Fed

This AUDUSD forecast covers where the pair stands as of 15 July 2026, 11:15 (GMT+8) / 03:15 (UTC). AUDUSD, or AUD to USD, traded near 0.6988 on the 15-minute Vantage AUDUSD CFD chart, per the TradingView setup used for this analysis. In the latest AUD/USD news, the pair has rebounded sharply from a multi-day low and continues to trade just below the psychologically important 0.7000 level. This analysis interprets the current chart structure without making a directional forecast.

Key Points

• AUDUSD traded near 0.6988 as of 15 July 2026, 11:15 (GMT+8), having rebounded from a swing low around 0.6915-0.6920 earlier in the week.
• Price is holding above both the 50-period moving average (0.69455) and the 200-period moving average (0.69775), a configuration traders generally read as constructive for the short-term structure.
• The Reserve Bank of Australia holds its next meeting on 11 August 2026, and the US Federal Reserve’s next decision lands on 28-29 July 2026, leaving both currencies in a data-dependent holding pattern for now.

What the chart is showing

AUDUSD spent the back half of June and the first half of July inside a choppy range broadly between 0.6910 and 0.6970, with repeated rejections near both edges of that band. The range broke on 14 July, when the pair moved sharply higher, according to the TradingView setup used for this analysis, from the mid-0.6920s toward a session high just under 0.6995.

Price has since consolidated in the 0.6975-0.6990 band and last traded near 0.6988. The 50-period moving average sits at 0.69455 and the 200-period moving average sits at 0.69775, both below the current price, according to the chart header used for this analysis. That places AUDUSD above both moving averages, a technical configuration traders generally treat as constructive rather than as a signal to act on.

The RSI (14) reads 62.13, with its moving-average overlay at 62.55, both attributed to the TradingView setup used for this analysis. It briefly moved into overbought territory during the 14 July rally before easing back into the low 60s. See all latest AUDUSD news here.

The macro backdrop: RBA and Fed both on hold

The Aussie’s rebound has coincided with a pause in directional conviction on both sides of the pair. The Reserve Bank of Australia has held its cash rate at 4.35% and does not meet again until 11 August 2026^[1]. Commerzbank strategists noted this week that the currency has traded largely sideways as markets wait for Australian labour and inflation data, alongside clarity on the Middle East conflict, before that meeting^[2].

On the US side, the Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% in June 2026, the first meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh, and flagged a possible hike later this year rather than a cut^[3]. Warsh said in early July that policymakers would decide on rate direction at the Fed’s next meeting, scheduled for 28-29 July 2026^[5]. Elevated uncertainty tied to the Middle East conflict has continued to factor into the Fed’s own policy language^[4].

With both central banks leaving policy settings unchanged for now, the recent move likely reflects a combination of improved risk appetite and a softer-than-expected US inflation print, which pulled the US dollar lower on 14 July 2026^[6], rather than a fresh policy signal from either central bank. Read all economic news today here.

Levels traders are watching

The table below covers the reference points from the chart above that traders are watching on AUDUSD. These are reference levels, not directional calls.

Table 1: Key AUDUSD levels as of 15 July 2026, 11:15 (GMT+8). Source: the TradingView setup used for this analysis. Indicative only.

On the upside, the 0.6995 area marks the 14 July 2026 session high, with the psychological 0.7000 level just beyond it. On the downside, the 0.6975 zone lines up close to the 200-period moving average, while the 0.6915-0.6920 area capped the pullback earlier in the week.

What to watch next

For anyone tracking the AUD to USD forecast into next month, here is the calendar that matters:

• RBA Meeting, 11 August 2026: Whether the cash rate holds at 4.35% or shifts, after weeks of a largely sideways Aussie.
• FOMC Meeting, 28-29 July 2026: The Federal Reserve’s next scheduled rate decision under Chair Kevin Warsh.
• Australian Labour and Inflation Data, Late July 2026: Prints due ahead of the RBA’s August meeting that markets are watching for fresh policy clues.
• Middle East Conflict, Ongoing: Developments remain a factor for broader risk sentiment and safe-haven US dollar demand.

Given the sharp move already seen this week, market participants often monitor Stop Loss placement around the support and resistance zones outlined above, particularly ahead of the RBA and Fed meetings later this month. AUDUSD has shown it can move quickly on shifts in risk sentiment tied to the Middle East conflict, so checking combined exposure across correlated pairs is worth doing before either event.

Leverage on AUDUSD CFDs works both ways, amplifying potential gains as well as potential losses. Position sizing relative to account equity is worth revisiting given the pair’s recent volatility, especially with two central bank decisions on the calendar within the next month.

RISK WARNING: CFDs are complex financial instruments and carry a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should ensure you fully understand the risks involved and carefully consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money before trading.

Disclaimer: The information is provided for educational purposes only and doesn’t take into account your personal objectives, financial circumstances, or needs. It does not constitute investment advice. We encourage you to seek independent advice if necessary. The information has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained within. This material may contain historical or past performance figures and should not be relied on. Furthermore estimates, forward-looking statements, and forecasts cannot be guaranteed. The information on this site and the products and services offered are not intended for distribution to any person in any country or jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation.

References

[1] “Cash Rate Target – Reserve Bank of Australia” https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/ Accessed on 15 July 2026.

[2] “Australian Dollar: Waiting for Australian data before RBA – Commerzbank – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/australian-dollar-waiting-for-australian-data-before-rba-commerzbank-202607140736 Accessed on 15 July 2026.

[3] “Fed interest rate decision June 2026: Fed holds rates steady – CNBC” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/17/fed-interest-rate-decision-june-2026.html Accessed on 15 July 2026.

[4] “US Federal Reserve holds rates steady under new chair Warsh – Al Jazeera” https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/6/17/us-federal-reserve-holds-rates-steady-under-new-chair-warsh Accessed on 15 July 2026.

[5] “US Federal Reserve expected to decide on rate hike in four weeks, Warsh says – Euronews” https://www.euronews.com/business/2026/07/01/us-federal-reserve-expected-to-decide-on-rate-hike-in-four-weeks-warsh-says Accessed on 15 July 2026.

[6] “United States Dollar Index slips as soft US CPI dents Fed rate-hike bets – FXStreet” https://www.fxstreet.com/news/united-states-dollar-index-slips-as-soft-us-cpi-dents-fed-rate-hike-bets-202607141806 Accessed on 15 July 2026.